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We maintain our forecast that should Brent crude spike to around $130 per barrel, the overvalued global equity markets and global economies (which are already weakened) will crash

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October Surprise? Take a look at the facts. October did not start off great for U.S. equities, however, the markets recovered with the S&P 500 hitting new highs. Yes, the S&P, which has nothing to do with Main Street, since, by the facts, 88 percent of it is owned by three members of the White Shoe Boys of Wall Street: BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street. And the richest 1 percent own 54 percent of the stock market—up from 40 percent 20 years ago—and when you add in the top 10 percent, they own 93 percent of the equity markets… leaving 3 percent for the plantation workers of Slavelandia.

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We note this because, as we see the facts and analyze the data, it’s a gambler crime syndicate that owns and operates the equity markets and it will do everything in its power to keep pumping up equities so they get richer. Indeed, we note this in this week’s Trends Journal article: “BLACKROCK NOW HAS MORE THAN $11 TRILLION UNDER MANAGEMENT”.

Over There

And remember the recent boom in the slumping Chinese equity markets when Beijing announced three weeks ago that it will pump in trillions of yuan to prop up equities and its failing economy?

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, Chinese real estate stocks had a record surge, with Shimao Group Holdings Ltd. and Sunac China Holdings Ltd., both defaulted real estate developers, seeing their stocks each spike more than 200 percent.  

That was then.

Today, mainland China’s CSI 300 slumped 2.66 percent, down more than 9 percent since its 8 October high and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index plunged nearly 4 percent today. 

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The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which includes Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong, has slumped some 12 percent since its 7 October high… in part thanks to weaker-than-expected September trade data. China’s export market, a key factor of its GDP, rose only 2.4 percent from a year ago. And witnessing the weakness of its consumer sector, imports were up only 0.3 percent.  

Tomorrow Not So Good

Signaling an economic contraction, for the second day in a row, Brent crude prices fell sharply, down nearly 4 percent today and down 3 percent year-to-date. Why? Because the global economy is in slowdown mode. Just a month ago, OPEC had forecast that oil demand would grow to 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd). Yesterday, the oil cartel cut its forecast for global oil demand growth saying that world oil demand will rise by 1.93 bpd in 2024. 

How come? Go back to the facts that the world’s second-largest economy, China, is suffering from declining economic growth which we detail in this and previous Trends Journals in our SPOTLIGHT ON CHINA articles. Indeed, no amount of Beijing economic stimulus—printing fake money backed by nothing and printed on nothing—will re-stimulate its sagging economy that was primarily a result of their launching the COVID War on its Chinese Lunar New Year, “The Year of the Rat,” and its three years of draconian zero-COVID policies that destroyed the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions. 

Compared to its brighter August forecast, OPEC said, “Diesel consumption continued to be subdued by slowing economic activity, mostly a slowdown in building and housing construction, and the substitution of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for petroleum diesel fuel in heavy-duty trucks.” 

Seeing darker economic times ahead, OPEC cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.64 million bpd. Last month they predicted oil demand would grow to 1.74 million bpd.

TREND FORECAST: Again, we had long forecast a decline in the global economy, noting that it was artificially propped up by governments across the globe when they printed countless trillions of dollars to fight the COVID War. Indeed, equity markets and economies should have crashed due to their draconian lockdown mandates that destroyed businesses across the globe. 

Not only did politicians artificially prop it up, the flood of cheap money is responsible for the sharp inflation spikes that still resonate throughout society… as we detail in this and previous Trends Journals.

On the oil front, most importantly, are the Israel and Ukraine wars, as they escalate, there is a strong potential that oil fields, depots, pipelines, refineries, etc. will be attacked and shipments of oil by sea will be disrupted. 

While it is being reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told U.S. President Joe Biden that his military will not attack Iranian oil sites—considering what the mainstream media calls his extreme right-wing government, and Netanyahu’s history of doing what he wants regardless of what he says—we forecast that there will be an Israeli attack on Iran and its oil sites… which will cause oil prices to sharply rise.  

Therefore, we maintain our forecast that should Brent crude spike to around $130 per barrel, the overvalued global equity markets and global economies (which are already weakened) will crash. 

And, the greater the tensions of the Israel and Ukraine wars, the higher the price of gold, the world’s #1 safe-haven asset, will rise.