CELENTE: How Will Trump Respond to Tanking Market?
As we keep noting, by the facts, Donald Trump says one thing and does another.
NOTE TO READERS: THIS ARTICLE WAS FOUND IN THIS WEEK’S ISSUE OF THE TRENDS JOURNAL. SUBSCRIBE NOW FOR HISTORY BEFORE IT HAPPENS
The facts and details are there for all to see and all to read.
On 4 February, the cover of The Trends Journal said it all: “DOT-COM BUST 2.0.”
Now, some six weeks later reality has hit The Street.
Since then, the over-bloated tech sector has gone from bad to worse and the so-called Magnificent Seven tech stocks, which boosted the sector for years, have gone from bad to worse for tech investors.
Yesterday, the Nasdaq had its worst slump since the depth of the COVID War back in 2022, and the (un)Magnificent Seven on Monday lost some $750 billion in market value. With the Nasdaq falling to a six-month low, the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund slumped into correction territory with its shares down some 14 percent from their high.
Again, where it goes with tariffs and what’s next is anyone’s guess. This is the CNBC headline as we go to press: “Dow drops more than 450 points, S&P 500 posts back-to-back loss over Trump tariff uncertainty”
Yes, total uncertainty!
Now, Canada is saying that it will suspend its threat to inject a 25 percent surcharge on electricity it exports into the U.S. because of an agreement with Canada’s Ontario Premier Doug Ford to talk with Howard Lutnick, America’s Commerce Secretary.
Speaking to Lutnick earlier today, Ford said they “had a productive conversation about the economic relationship between the United States and Canada.”
Flip-Flop
As we keep noting, by the facts, Donald Trump says one thing and does another.
Once again, doing a total 180, six hours after saying that he would impose 50 percent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports, President Trump again backtracked, saying he will not impose them.
TREND FORECAST: As we have long forecast, the lower equity markets and the economy fall, the more President Trump will do to lower interest rates to juice them back up. Again, he did it before back in 2018 when he was President, and the Dow had its worst December since the Great Depression in 1931… and he will do it again. Back then he forced Fed-Head Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, and Powell bowed to Trump and lowered them in January 2019.
Now, The Street is saying what we have long forecast with traders betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year.
Therefore, we remain very bullish on gold which was up some $27 today, closing at $2,917 per ounce. Again, the lower interest rates fall, the deeper the dollar will sink. And the deeper the dollar falls, the higher gold prices will rise.
Moreover, as we continue to detail, the lower interest rates fall, and the deeper the dollar falls—the dollar index is at its lowest level since October of last year—since gold is dollar based, it will be more affordable for people and central banks of other nations to buy gold.
And of course, there are the many Wild Cards that will be played this year that will be positive for gold. Among them, by the facts, are Trump’s back-and-forth on tariffs and other issues such as the Ukraine and Israel Wars that will continue with uncertainty and be the way of the Trump world for the next four years.
Birdies Flight Report: Market Turbulence and Strategic Navigation
🦅 S&P 500: Approaching a Storm Front
📉 Technical Overview
Bearish Winds: The S&P 500 remains below critical flight altitudes (9-day, 18-day, and 50-day SMAs), confirming downward momentum.
MACD Negative Drag: Deep in negative airspace, MACD’s signal line divergence shows increasing downside momentum.
Oversold But Watch for an Updraft: RSI at 25 suggests exhaustion, but a proper reversal requires a shift in air currents (volume-driven buyers stepping in).
Flight Plan: Key support at 5,500 - 5,400. A break below could lead to turbulence at 5,300, while a recovery above 5,550 may offer a temporary tailwind.
🦅 Silver (SLV): Climbing into the Jetstream
📈 Technical Overview
Bullish Altitude: SLV is flying along the upper Bollinger Band, showing strong momentum.
MACD Lift-Off: Above the signal line but showing a slight slowdown in histogram expansion—momentum may need refueling before continuing higher.
Clear Skies Above: RSI at 55, meaning it has room to climb before overbought levels (70+).
Flight Plan: Resistance at $30.50 - $31.00, support at $28.50. Holding above $29.00 could confirm sustained altitude gains.
🦅 US Dollar Index (DXY): Caught in a Downdraft
📉 Technical Overview
Headwinds Strengthen: DXY is locked in a descending pattern, with bearish momentum prevailing.
Key Landing Zones:
104.00 → First support test (weak hands may offload here).
102.50 - 103.00 → Stronger zone, previous consolidation area.
100.00 - 101.00 → Deep structural support (last-resort landing before a major correction).
Flight Plan: If 104.00 holds, a bounce could follow. Below that, 102.50 becomes a crucial make-or-break level.
🌎 Macro View: The Birdies' Perspective on Market Decentralization
🦅 De-Dollarization Trends:
Countries and corporations are offloading USD reserves, seeking alternative assets (gold, digital currencies, and hard commodities).
If the 100.00 level on DXY breaks, expect an accelerated global shift away from USD dominance.
🦅 Crypto & Digital Assets: Decentralized Havens?
Bitcoin & Gold outperforming fiat-linked assets, indicating a pivot towards decentralized stores of value.
Central banks continue digital currency experiments—will they fly in formation or disrupt traditional markets?
🦅 AI & Automation: Reshaping Supply Chains
AI-driven market decisions are increasing, removing human bias from trading strategies.
Decentralized factories powered by humanoid robotics could create self-sustaining production hubs, further weakening centralized financial control mechanisms.
📌 Final Birdie Observations
✅ S&P 500 remains weak, but an oversold bounce is on the radar.
✅ Silver is showing strength, while the US Dollar faces devaluation risks.
✅ Decentralization is gaining traction, with AI, crypto, and independent markets reshaping macro trends.
🦅 Stay agile. Watch key support levels. The sky is vast, and the Birdies will always find new routes to navigate turbulence.
Let me know if you want sector-specific analysis or adjustments to the style! 🚀
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Markets may try to clip our wings, but decentralized awareness keeps us flying high. Let me know if you need updates, deep dives, or a sector-specific Birdie scan.
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