CELENTE: U.S. Economy is a Guessing Game

By their deeds, not words, you shall know them. And as of now, these are just shadows of the economic trends shaping the future.

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It’s a whole new economic game, and how it’s played and who will win is, at this point, a guessing game.

By their gambling deeds, since the re-election of Donald Trump, The Street sees very happy times ahead for the U.S., while much of the world’s nations—as we detail in this and previous Trends Journals—see more economic downsides ahead.

Indeed, today, after Trump said yesterday that he would impose 25 percent tariffs on Canadian products shipped to the U.S., the Loonie, Canadian dollar, went looney, falling to its lowest level since May 2020… the depth of the COVID War.

Trump also said there would be a 25 percent tariff on Mexican imports and plans to add another 10 percent on Chinese imports.

Here’s what Trump posted on his Truth Social:

I have had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl, being sent into the United States – But to no avail. Representatives of China told me that they would institute their maximum penalty, that of death, for any drug dealers caught doing this but, unfortunately, they never followed through, and drugs are pouring into our Country, mostly through Mexico, at levels never seen before. Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

All Talk, No Action

By their deeds, not words, you shall know them. And as of now, these are just shadows of the economic trends shaping the future. Will President Trump impose the ever-escalating tariffs on foreign nations? Will he cut taxes as much as he said he will?

To juice the equity markets and the economy, will Trump push Fed Head Jerome Powell to lower interest rates as he did in January 2019 after the Dow and S&P 500 sank 10 percent in December 2018 and the Nasdaq fell more than 9 percent… racking up the worst December since the Great Depression December of 1931?

But as of now, the U.S. equity markets are bright and happy… glowing with joy that Trump won the race to the White House.

And as we detail in this and previous Trends Journals, his picks for major cabinet levels draw pictures of uncertainty as to what are Trump's bluffs and what will be true Trump economic actions.

Will the U.S. debt level spike because of his tax cuts, or will his team cut enough government jobs to slash government spending by trillions?

What will happen and who will do what? As we continue to note in this and previous Trends Journals, by the selection of the Money Changers that will be running his economic show, the economic upside under Trump will be much stronger than the downside.

As noted, the billionaires are running The Presidential Reality Show®, this is a front-page article in today’s New York Times:

Can Wall Street Billionaires Deliver on Trump’s Blue-Collar Promise?

The president-elect has named wealthy financiers for key economic positions, raising questions about how much they will follow through on promises to help the working class

When Donald J. Trump first ran for the White House in 2016, his closing campaign advertisement lamented the influence of Wall Street in Washington, flashing ominous images of big banks and the billionaire liberal philanthropist George Soros.

Now, as president-elect, Mr. Trump has tapped two denizens of Wall Street to run his economic agenda. Scott Bessent, who invested money for Mr. Soros for more than a decade, is his pick for Treasury secretary, and Howard Lutnick, the chief executive of Cantor Fitzgerald, will be nominated to lead the Commerce Department. Mr. Trump’s choices to lead his economic team show the prominence of billionaire investors in setting an agenda that is supposed to fuel a “blue-collar boom” but that skeptics think will mostly benefit the rich.

And this is not just coming from what is called the “liberal” New York Times—or as we call it “The Toilet Paper of Record” and not “The Paper of Record” they claim to be—that the billionaire club will be running the White House, as The Wall Street Journal wrote today, it is the way of Washington, DC.

Venture-Capital Firms Hit Record Political Donations

Venture capitalists put their money where their mouths were this election cycle.

Contributions by venture-industry employees to federal campaigns totaled more than $242 million through mid-October, dwarfing prior totals, according to OpenSecrets, a nonpartisan group that tracks money in politics.

That is more than double the level four years ago, for example, when the industry sent about $95 million to federal campaigns, per OpenSecrets. This election cycle’s full federal political contribution data will be available in December.

Donations were much more highly concentrated this time around, with donors affiliated with four venture firms—Andreessen Horowitz, Greylock Partners, Sequoia Capital and Pivotal Ventures—accounting for more than half of the contributions, per the data. In 2020, 13 firms donated half of the industry’s total.

The WSJ goes on to note that according to “OpenSecrets, one of the largest recipients in this category was the crypto super PAC Fairshake, which backed candidates of both parties that supported pro-crypto policies.”

TRENDPOST: So there you have it. As we used to say in The Bronx, “Money Talks and Bullshit Walks.”

We have noted and continue to note the importance of the money coming in from the crypto club, especially to the Trump campaign, and what it will mean for the crypto future.

As for the forecasts of how and why these contributions are important and what to expect, we suggest you read Gregory Mannarino’s article, “SLEEPING WITH THE ENEMY” in this issue of The Trends Journal.

And as we say, like it or not, agree or disagree, the motto of The Trends Journal is “Think for Yourself.” We do our best to provide insights and observations across the information spectrum.