ECONOMIC UPDATE: CPI Numbers Are Rigged
Over the years, the methodology used to calculate the CPI has undergone numerous revisions.
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As we had forecast back in November 2022, the U.S. equity markets would climb in 2023, with the S&P 500 expected to increase at least 16 percent.
As of today, the S&P 500 is up over 17 percent while the Dow and Nasdaq are up 5.3 percent and 35 percent, respectively, for the year.
The White Shoe Boy gamblers on The Street that have pumped up the U.S. equity markets have nothing to do with the reality on Main Street.
The facts are there—for all who are not deaf, dumb or blind—to hear, understand and see the indisputable data.
ZELENSKY COMPARES ASSASSINATION ATTEMPTS TO COVID-19
Last week the Federal Reserve reported that 80 percent of U.S. households are in worse financial shape now than before the COVID War.
PUBLISHER’S NOTE: Of course the mainstream media and the people parrot the “official” line that it was a “pandemic,” which the World Health Organization declared on 11 March 2020 when the grand total of 4,219 people died of virus… out of 8 billion people.
And since that time, just 0.7 percent of the world population allegedly died of the virus, so it was not a “pandemic.”
However, absent the Fed’s household report, not a mention of the spiritual, financial, and economic damage inflicted upon the public across the globe as a result of politician’s draconian lockdowns… which we have continually detailed in The Trends Journal.
According to Bloomberg, since the beginning of the COVID War, 80 percent of Americans have drained their savings and have less cash than they had before the “pandemic” started.
Not only are the plantation workers of Slavelandia feeling it in their pocket, it’s also hitting the retail sector. Indeed, from luxury to discount, as we have been reported, retail chain sales are slumping.
Today American Eagle Outfitters stock (as we go to press) slumped 17 percent after reporting lower-than-expected sales for the last quarter and a dim outlook for the holiday season. Abercrombie & Fitch, Best Buy, Lowe’s, Kohl’s, and Target have all cut their sales forecasts for fourth-quarter sales.
The National Retail Federation predicts that holiday sales will increase around 4 percent this year. However, that number is not adjusted for inflation. With core inflation at around 4 percent, the sales will be flat at best. However, when putting in the real inflation number, according to Shadowstats rates, inflation is actually double the “official” number. And by the expected weak holiday sales, consumers are feeling it in their pocket.
Indeed, while the claims that inflation is falling, the reality is that wages, as we have been reporting, are not keeping up with inflation and the CPI numbers are rigged since they were reformulated, thus the inflation rate is much higher than what is “officially” being reported. As Investopedia notes:
Over the years, the methodology used to calculate the CPI has undergone numerous revisions. According to the BLS, the changes removed biases that caused the CPI to overstate the inflation rate. The new methodology takes into account changes in the quality of goods and substitution. Substitution, the change in purchases by consumers in response to price changes, changes the relative weighting of the goods in the basket.
The overall result tends to be a lower CPI. However, critics view the methodological changes and the switch from a COGI to a COLI as a purposeful manipulation that allows the U.S. government to report a lower CPI.
With less money to spend and interest rates still high, today it was reported that home sales in October in the U.S. were down 14.6 percent from year over year. Yet, according to the National Association of Realtors, the median price for an existing home sold in October was $391,800…up 3.4 percent from a year ago ($378,800). Inflation is not going down: With supply down, some 28 percent of homes sold above their list price.
But here we are with home prices spiking, they are not added into the rigged CPI numbers. According to the Congressional Research Service; “Despite the heft of the housing category in the calculation of the CPI, BLS does not include housing units (i.e., the actual buildings) in the CPI market basket.
TREND FORECAST: From Asia to the EU, from developed to underdeveloped countries, economies—as we detail in this and previous Trends Journals—are slumping and/or sinking into recession. As we had forecast, when consumer spending in the service sectors was climbing during the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere, the people were in a summer state of mind and wanted to have a good time… but across the manufacturing spectrum, the numbers were in negative territory. Thus, the reality had already hit that consumers would be buying less retail products.
Now with the Israel War raging and it spreading to Lebanon and Syria, should Israel and the United States engage in a military confrontation with Iran, Brent Crude will spike to above $130 per barrel… which in turn will crash equity markets and the global economy.
TREND FORECAST: While the minutes released today of the recent Federal Reserve meeting suggest that they will not be cutting interest rates anytime soon if inflation remains well above their 2 percent goal that they made up in 2012, we disagree.
Again, with signals for a slowdown in consumer spending—which accounts for nearly 70 percent of U.S. GDP—we forecast the Fed will hold interest rates where they are and begin to lower them in the run-up to the 2024 race to the White House. Indeed, with the former Fed Head Janet Yellen now playing the role as U.S. Treasury Secretary, it is clear that the Bankster Bandits are running the U.S. money game and they will do all they can to stay in power.