ECONOMIC UPDATE: Dragflation for Italy, Europe, and Much of the World
Right in front of everyone’s eyes the Bankster Bandits are running America
NOTE TO READERS: The following is our weekly Economic Update — Market Overview found in this week’s issue of The Trends Journal. Consider subscribing here for in-depth, independent geopolitical and socioeconomic trends and trend forecasts that you won’t find anywhere else.
As we had forecast in July, when the U.S. equity markets were still rising high, they would decline sharply in September and October.
It was an upbeat mood yesterday as gamblers on The Street bet that the big tech companies would boost bigger profits for the year. And while the Dow spiked more than 500 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each moved up 1.2 percent… the S&P and Nasdaq, down more than 10 percent from their highs, are still in correction territory.
Again, we had forecast last November that the S&P would spike at least 16 percent this year and it did… spiking up nearly 20 percent. But now it is down some 13 percent from its January 2022 high.
And while the Street is focused on the U.S. equity markets, pick up The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal and read their market reports on Saturday as to what happened to equities on Friday. Not one sentence about the Asian or European markets and what in the world is going on in the rest of the world’s economies. Again, not one word.
And yesterday, the WSJ ended its MARKETS report with this final sentence: “Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.4%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1%.”
That’s all folks…nothing on the EU side about Germany, the largest economy in the EU, teetering on recession as its Gross Domestic Product slumped 0.1 percent in the last quarter. And today, Italy, the third-largest economy in the EU, which saw its GDP fall 0.4 percent in the second quarter, reported that its economy stagnated in the third quarter.
Meanwhile, as its economy is in recession territory core inflation for October hit 4.5 percent, down just 0.4 percent from the month before.
Therefore, the bottom line is Dragflation for Italy, Europe, and much of the world: Declining economic growth and rising inflation. A trend that we had long forecast that the mainstream media refuses to acknowledge. Indeed, they still sell the old line of “stagflation.”
And going back to the mainstream business media barely reporting on what in the economic world is going on, again in both the NYT and the WSJ’s weekly wrap-up, not a word about the Hang Seng Index or the Shanghai index.
The Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed stocks CSI 300 index is down some 15 percent this year in dollar terms, slumping to pre-COVID 2019 levels.
Bigger Picture
Repeating what we had warned on 3 January when we published our Top Trends for 2023 “Middle East Meltdown”—that war between the United States and Israel vs. Iran would escalate this year and oil prices would spike—yesterday the World Bank echoed our warning.
Now that the Israel War has officially begun, and as we note in this and previous issues, the U.S. and Israel are ramping up military engagement, the World Bank predicts that if the war escalates Brent Crude will spike above $150 a barrel.
The bank said the latest conflict in the Middle East comes on the heels of the biggest shock to commodity markets “since the 1970s Russia’s war with Ukraine.”
TREND FORECAST: Although down from the 37 percent of global oil exports from the 1970s to 30 percent of global oil exports from the Middle East, the World Bank claims that the global economy is in better shape than when OPEC cut off oil exports as a result of the U.S. and its western allies supporting Israel’s 1973 Yom Kippur war… we disagree.
The current Israel War is far more threatening to both Israel and the world than the 1973 Yom Kippur war in that the world has changed dramatically since then. On the Israel War front, besides support for Israel from the United States and its allies, much of the world has become anti-Israel as they commit open-air genocide against Palestinians in Gaza and escalate the slaughter of Palestinians in the West Bank for all to see.
Yes, for all to see, it is being “televised.” As reported by Consortium News today, “The mass murder of innocent Palestinian civilians by Israel continues, with the bombing of the Jabaliya refugee camp north of Gaza City on Wednesday. History has seen a procession of genocides. But this is the first to be televised.”
Thus, their militaries are much more powerful and their economies are much larger today than back in 1973.
Thus, even with a loss of 7 percent of providing global oil supply since the 1970s, should the Middle East cut off oil to the U.S. and its European allies, what the Bank did not note, is that should Russia also cut back supply as the Ukraine War continues, oil prices will spike to unforeseen levels which will in turn crash the global economy and global equity markets.
And as Gerald Celente notes, when the economy crashes wars heat up because “When all else fails, they take you to war.” And this time, WWIII will escalate to nuclear war… so the price of oil, wheat, dairy products, etc., won’t matter as much of life on earth will be destroyed.
The Big News
Of course, all eyes will be on what the U.S. Fed says tomorrow about its current and future interest rate policy.
With the bet that they will keep rates where they are, we maintain our forecast that they will definitely lower them in the run-up to America’s 2024 Presidential Reality Show® in their effort to keep those in power… in power. Indeed, the woman in charge of the U.S. Treasury, Janet Yellen, was the former Fed-Head before Biden brought her to the White House.
TREND FORECAST: Thus, once again it is there for all to see, but most are too ignorant, too blind or lack the courage to admit to the truth: Right in front of everyone’s eyes the Bankster Bandits are running America. And with a $33.5 trillion dollar debt load, they, with their cheap money policy, quantitative easing, etc., are helping to destroy the U.S. economy.
Again, we maintain our forecast that as interest rates go lower, the U.S. dollar will decline and gold prices will soar.
The banks running the US ? They ran this country almost into the ground some 15 years ago - not to mention what they did to the rest of the world.
Amazing how we can see the war in-real time, streamed to our televisions, computers, lap-tops, cell-phones. So much ingenuity !
And yet we still cannot distribute the wealth more equally. We still cannot live together in peace.