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As we had long forecast when politicians locked down civilization to fight the COVID War, it would destroy the lives and livelihoods of billions across the globe.
It has, and the facts are there for all who are not blind to see.
Again, on the economic side, equity markets and economies should have crashed but they were artificially propped up with countless trillions of government money backed by nothing and printed on nothing, plus record low interest rates to keep the government Ponzi scheme going.
Besides the mental, physical, and economic damage caused by the COVID War—which we have extensively detailed in The Trends Journal when it was launched by China in January 2020 on their Lunar New Year, “The Year of the Rat”—it also escalated the refugee crisis sweeping Europe and North America.
This is from yesterday’s New York Times article, “The Scion of a Banana Empire Leads in Ecuador’s Election.”
Besides talking about the crime wave sweeping the country and the newly elected president, they write, “Like much of the rest of Latin America, Ecuador was dealt a major financial blow by the coronavirus pandemic, and many workers struggle to make enough money to provide for their families. Only 34 percent of Ecuadoreans have adequate employment, according to government data.”
No, not “a financial blow by the coronavirus pandemic,” it was a draconian dictatorial blow from the political blowhards and their little arrogant bureaucratic “health officials” who destroyed their economy with lockdowns.
And to illustrate how low the common people who are not among the “elites” are downgraded as nothing more than plantation workers of Slavelandia, The Times says that “many workers struggle to make enough money to provide for their families.”
No, they are not human beings suffering because of the politicians who have destroyed their lives, they are nothing more than “workers” who can’t find enough work to “provide for their families,” so they have to escape their country.
In fact, the NYT even notes that “Ecuador was once a peaceful nation compared with its neighbors.”
But thanks to the politicians launching COVID War, not anymore.
Again, we note this because the damage of the COVID war is incalculable, and there will be no recovery. As we also note, barely is heard the discouraging word of our Office Building Bust trend that will bring down much of the banking system as a result of people working from home and landlords unable to pay off their massive commercial real estate loans as tenants abandon offices and vacancy rates keep rising.
From COVID War to Ukraine War
Putting more downward pressure on the plantation workers of Slavelandia, thanks to the sanctions the United States, NATO and their allies have placed on Russia since Moscow invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022… many commodity prices skyrocketed.
While a gallon of regular gasoline is selling at $3.63 nationwide, down 5.8 percent from a month ago, according to AAA, it is because the summer driving season is over, thus supply is much higher than demand. The Wall Street Journal reports that “Contracts for November shipments of wholesale gasoline into New York Harbor have tumbled more than 23 percent since their 2023 high point on Aug. 11,” and “U.S. gasoline consumption in the third quarter dropped 60,000 barrels a day from last year, a 0.7 percent annual decline, and the International Energy Agency on Thursday reported ‘signs of demand destruction in the United States.’”
Thus, this not only indicates economic contraction, despite the “news” that prices are falling, gasoline prices are up some 30 percent from 2021. Thus, the more money going into oil and gas, the less consumers will spend in the retail and service sectors.
From COVID War, to Ukraine War, to Israel War
And while oil and natural gas prices spiked when the Ukraine War began in February 2022 and have fallen since, the Israel War, as we have been warning, risks driving prices up much higher.
Putting more inflationary pressures on consumers and industry, since last week when Hamas attacked Israel, Brent Crude spiked 7.5 percent and Europe’s TTF natural gas benchmark shot up some 40 percent.
TREND FORECAST: As we have warned with one of our Top Trends for 2023 that we published on 3 January 2023, Middle East Meltdown, the Israel War was heating up and we noted that there was rising probability that Iran would be involved. And if Iran goes to war with Israel and the United States, Brent Crude will spike to above $130 per barrel and it will crash equity markets and the global economy.
Get Ready
Making a bad oil and war situation worse, last week in an interview on NewsNation’s “The Hill,” U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham said the U.S. will attack Iranian oil infrastructure “If there is an escalation in this conflict, if hostages start getting killed, if Hezbollah in the north attacks Israel in strength, we should tell the Ayatollah we will destroy your oil refineries and your oil infrastructure,” and “We will put you out of business.”
The Other Side
Yesterday, Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian warned of “The possibility of pre-emptive action by the resistance axis is expected in the coming hours,” and that “the resistance leaders” will not allow Israel “to do whatever it wants in Gaza.”
Saying the Israeli attack on Gaza would essentially risk an attack on Iran, he said, “If we don’t defend Gaza today, tomorrow we have to defend against these (phosphorus) bombs in the children’s hospital of our own country.”
And while there is some positive economic news in America, such as retail sales rising 0.7 percent in September, when adjusted for inflation, on a year-over-basis, sales rose just 0.1 percent.
Yet, not only has this pushed equity markets higher, it also improves the risk that the U.S. Feds will keep interest rates high and possibly hike them. As Yahoo Finance noted, Oxford Economics Michael Pearce said “The economy is entering Q4 with more momentum than we previously thought,” and “The risks to our forecast for a slight contraction in consumption in Q4 are firmly to the upside. The strength of the economy also means that Fed officials will leave the door open for additional rate hikes.”
TREND FORECAST: What is missing in the mainstream economic forecasts are the Ukraine War and the Israel War.
On the Ukraine War front, as Kyiv’s counteroffensive failed, which we had forecast it would, we now forecast they will do all they can to turn the tide of war in their favor by taking such actions as launching a major false flag event, attack a nuclear power plant, escalate attacks within Russia etc. As a result, this will spike oil, gas and other commodity prices and send a chill of economic fear across Europe and North America.
Making a bad situation worse, we see no end in sight for the Israel War. And should Iran and Hezbollah become actively involved, as we have forecast, oil prices will spike above $130 per barrel and equities and economies will crash.
Should these trends develop, U.S. and EU central banks will rapidly lower interest rates. And as we have forecast, the deeper U.S. interest rates fall, the deeper the U.S. dollar will fall and the higher gold prices will rise.
On the EU front, we maintain our forecast that regardless of what they do with interest rates, European economies will sink into Dragflation: declining economic growth and rising inflation. And both the Ukraine War and the Israeli War will make a bad economic situation much worse.
Gerald, While not having the background or financial education of your team to comment on world economic topics, I think think on the commercial real estate issue that converting existing vacant inventory to residential uses could impact the availability of affordable housing for all.