GERALD CELENTE: No Connection Between Wall Street and Main Street
If the equity markets are so strong, why is the sentiment on Main Street so weak?
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On the economic side of life in America, for Wall Street, the mood is upbeat and we forecast it will remain so for the next few months as Donald Trump takes over the White House. But, of course, there is no relationship between Wall Street and Main Street.
Need proof?
Overall, it was a banner year for the U.S. equity markets—which outperformed Europe and Asia stock markets. The Nasdaq spiked 28.6 percent; the S&P 500—of which 88 percent is owned by BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street—went up more than 23 percent last year, while the Dow climbed nearly 13 percent.
So, the question is clear: if the equity markets are so strong, why is the sentiment on Main Street so weak?
Need proof?
According to a 23 December report by The Conference Board:
“The recent rebound in consumer confidence was not sustained in December as the Index dropped back to the middle of the range that has prevailed over the past two years…
“While weaker consumer assessments of the present situation and expectations contributed to the decline, the expectations component saw the sharpest drop,” [and their] “assessment of business conditions weakened. Compared to last month, consumers in December were substantially less optimistic about future business conditions and incomes. Moreover, pessimism about future employment prospects returned after cautious optimism prevailed in October and November.”
Let’s go back to the 2024 Presidential Reality Show®.
Take a look at the polling data.
According to an Election Day AP VoteCast survey of over 110,000 Americans who went to the polls, over 40 percent said the economy and jobs were the biggest problem facing the nation.
Indeed, frustrated about the high cost of housing, groceries, gasoline, etc., the majority cast their ballots for Trump, who they perceive as a President for the people… someone who will “Make America Great Again.”
Again, by the facts, absolutely no correlation between Wall Street and Main Street.
Going back to the equity markets, according to FactSet, the S&P 500 gains in 2024 and in 2023 racked up its best performance since 1997 and 1998… the days of the Internet Revolution and the dot.com craze. And now, the guess on the Street is that the S&P will climb about 15 percent this year.
Road Ahead
The economy of America, at this short moment, is separate from the rest of the world. Today, India’s government reported that the nation’s economic growth for the financial year of April 2024 to March 2025 will increase by 6.4 percent, which, because of weakness in the manufacturing and services sectors, will hit a four year low.
From India, the fifth largest economy in the world to China, the second largest to Germany, the third, Japan, the fourth to the U.K., number six and France number seven… economic weakness, fears of recession and/or at the best, moderate growth is the name of the global economic game.
And the implications, as seen with the U.S. presidential race, citizens are electing populist leaders and rejecting the “establishment” politicians in power that they believe are ruining their nations. As evidenced by their low poll ratings, the so-called “leaders” are leaving office and/or being pushed out as we are seeing in Canada, U.K., Austria, South Korea, Germany, France, etc.
A key lesson of trend forecasting is the understanding that all things are connected. And as we say, “Opportunity misses those who view the world through the eyes of their profession.” Therefore, to analyze, track and forecast economic trends it is essential to stay on-trend with the political trends and their socioeconomic and geopolitical consequences. As evidenced by the facts and data, we are in the beginning stages of a great transfer that will lead much of the world into a new realm of reality that will shape the future.
And as evidenced by the election of Trump as the saying goes, “It’s the economy stupid.” Again, despite Wall Street booming, the plantation workers of Slavelandia are struggling… as are most of the people on the planet.