Gordon Chang on Whether or Not China Will Own the 21st Century
The author of "The Coming Collapse of China" talks about Beijing's relationship with Russia and the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
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Gordon Chang, the author of “The Coming Collapse of China,” gave a wide-ranging interview with Gerald Celente and discussed China's next century, its support of Russia, and the risk of a looming invasion in Taiwan.
Celente has long said that the 21st Century will belong to China because the business of the U.S. has been war, and “the business of China is business.” Chang raised questions about the Chinese economy and expressed doubt about the country's future.
“The Chinese economy is not growing as fast as been reported,” Chang said. “But even the reports are slower than we’ve seen before. And China, right now, has a debt crisis that it has no answer to.”
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China’s GDP grew faster than anticipated in the first quarter of the year and rose 4.8 percent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. Economists were expecting a 4.4 percent increase, according to CNBC. At the same time, the report pointed out that the unemployment rate across 31 major Chinese cities rose from 5.4 percent to 6 percent, which the report said is the highest on record.
Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, told the website that the “COVID outbreaks only forced Shanghai and some other cities to enter lockdowns in late March and early April. Therefore the economic slowdown likely worsened in April.”
SUPPORT OF RUSSIA
Chang also pointed out that Beijing gave the green light for Russia to invade Ukraine, and supported Russia’s war effort with “elevated commodity purchases.” But said there has been a noticeable change in Beijing's posture over the last two weeks that many haven't noticed.
“China has backed off from a number of things,” Chang said. “And I think that’s because they are worried about what the Biden administration will do.”
He pointed to the Forbes Russia report that said Huawei, the Chinese telecom giant, furloughed staff in Moscow for at least a month.
Guo Ping, a vice-chairman at Huawei, said last month that he is assessing risks to its operations after the Russian invasion, according to The South China Morning Post.
“We’ve noticed that some countries and regions have issued some policies, and they’re complex and constantly changing. Huawei is still carefully assessing these policies,” Guo said.
After the invasion of Ukraine, all eyes have been on Taiwan due to the threat of military action by China. Chang said there are a lot of reasons that Beijing will not invade Taiwan, but he called them “logical reasons.”
“And as we’ve seen in regard to Ukraine, logic doesn’t always govern world events,” he said.
TAIWAN
Taipei has been watching the Ukraine War unfold and is discussing strategies on how it would best respond to an invasion from China, which has a much larger military.
Taipei has traditionally looked to expensive missile systems to repel an invasion. Taiwan spent a record $17 billion on its military in 2022 and, in January, its parliament approved $8.6 billion more that will be earmarked for precision missiles and high-efficiency naval ships.
Chang said there are a lot of reasons that Beijing will not invade Taiwan, but he called them “logical reasons.”
“And as we’ve seen in regard to Ukraine, logic doesn’t always govern world events,” he said.
TREND FORECAST: We have pointed to numerous articles that explain Taiwan is simply no match for the much larger and deadlier Chinese military. China spends 25 times the amount Taipei does on its defenses. China also has a hundred times as many ground-force troops as the island.
China will spend $229.47 billion on defense in 2022, according to reports.
Even with the military support from the U.S. which has not won a war since World War II and cannot even win against third-world nations, such as Afghanistan, Taiwan would be outmatched by its larger rival.
And while the U.S. and its allies have sent billions in munitions and money to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s invasion... while the alliance said they would defend Taiwan if China were to attempt to militarily take it over, in reality, we forecast it is more talk than action. READ MORE HERE
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