MACGREGOR: America's new long war
Washington’s gamble failed. Russia remains intact. Russia’s resources remain beyond the reach of Western financial power.
BY DOUGLAS MACGREGOR
Wars frequently pick up where the last ones left off. World War II started where World War 1 ended. Operation Iraqi Freedom (Gulf War II) began where Desert Storm (Gulf War I) concluded.
Today, there is every reason to expect the recent 12-day conflict between Iran on one side and Israel and the United States on the other to resume when the Israeli and U.S. Forces have replenished their stocks of missiles. No doubt, the Iranians will work hard to radically improve their integrated air defenses. For simplicity, let’s call the current conflict, the “New Long War.”
As always, the New Long War continues with other means. GEN Erik Kurilla, the CENTCOM CDR is known for his close relationship with PM Bibi Netanyahu and his enthusiasm for the Greater Israel Project including seizure of Sinai and the Suez Canal. Fully aware of the impossibility of rapidly conquering and seizing the Suez Canal without active American military support, General Kurilla may have received authority from President Trump to conduct joint planning.
The presence of a newly established Russia phased array radar in Egypt suggests Moscow is aware of the possibility. The Russian phased array radar can reportedly track stealth aircraft and missile launches at long range.
Further east, some 1,200 miles away in Azerbaijan, Israel’s Azeri-Turkish ally is allegedly preparing to attack Armenia and, potentially, northern Iran. Gen. Kurilla also knows that Iran, like Russia, has a long history of cooperation with Orthodox Christian Armenia. Israel provided critical drone technology to Azerbaijan in its last victorious campaign against Armenia, and Azerbaijan likely provided support for Israeli operations against Iran.
Kurilla is also acquainted with the MEK (Mojahedin-e-Khalq) an anti-Iranian Kurdish Force formerly aligned with Saddam Hussein’s government in Iraq. The MEK fights for regime change in Iran and is predictably now aligned with the Trump Administration.
Azerbaijan’s goal is a greater Azerbaijan created by forcibly annexing Iran’s Turkic Azeri population centered on Tabriz in Northern Iran. The unspoken assumption in Washington, Jerusalem, and Baku is that the Azeri Turks in Northern Iran will welcome the opportunity to join with their Azeri neighbors. The national leaders in all three States view this operation as contributing to the breakup and destruction of Iranian national unity, as well as the desired regime changes in Tehran.
These operations are in the planning stage but could be launched at any time. These may or may not wait for the U.S. and Israeli missile arsenals to be replenished.