MEARSHEIMER: Israel Would Be Insane to Invade Lebanon, Even With U.S. Support
MEARSHEIMER: Israel Would Be Insane to Invade Lebanon, Even With U.S. Support
Israel finds itself with no good options
Professor John Mearsheimer, the professor and co-author of “The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy,” said in an interview published Thursday that Israel would be “insane” to invade Lebanon — even with the U.S.’s backing because its military is in disarray and was unable to defeat Hamas in Gaza.
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Mearsheimer told Judge Andrew Napolitano’s podcast that Israel finds itself with no good options. Israel is bogged down in Gaza and it faces civil unrest that could lead to a civil war, he said. A war with Hezbollah would be catastrophic — even as it relies on U.S. support.
“All these problems are unfixable,” he said. “They’re in deep trouble and they're digging deeper.”
He said Israel does not have the military to defeat Hezbollah.
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“This is not quite the independent country that Israel likes to think of itself as,” he said. “it is heavily dependent on the United States. So when you take all of these factors into account, you can ask yourself the question, ‘How can they get out of this, attack Hezbollah in Lebanon?’ Are we serious? They did this in 1982; they did this in 2006… it was a disaster. Their army is worn out from what happened in Gaza… they haven't beaten Hamas… they would be insane to invade Lebanon.”
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said Thursday that Israel is considering a “real, studied” response to the attack, rather than a symbolic one, Al Jazeera reported.
Iran sent a clear message to Israel on Friday that a full-scale war with Lebanon would be an “obliterating war.”
“All options [including] the full involvement of all Resistance Fronts, are on the table,” the Islamic Republic’s UN mission said in a post on X.
Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah have been fighting a slow-burn war for years, but tensions intensified after the Hamas attack on 7 October. In recent weeks, Israelis have been threatening to invade.
Hezbollah has made it clear that it will continue to pound Israeli targets and make it impossible for about 60,000 Israelis to return to their homes in occupied northern Israel as long as the genocide in Gaza continues.
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On the U.S. side, Anti-War.com reported:
“The US has given Israel a massive number of heavy munitions since October 7, including 14,000 of the highly destructive MK-84 2,000-pound bombs that have been repeatedly dropped on civilians in Gaza, Reuters reported on Saturday.
Two US officials told Reuters that the US has also sent 6,500 500-pound bombs, 3,000 Hellfire missiles, 1,000 bunker-buster bombs, 2,600 small-diameter bombs, and other munitions.
The large number of munitions demonstrates the fact that the Biden administration’s pause on a shipment of powerful bombs did not have a real impact on US military support for Israel. Axios reported on June 27 that the US has approved the transfer of 1,700 500-pound bombs that were part of the paused shipment.”
Iran has shown Israel that it is willing to strike back and there is no question that Tehran would feel more compelled to fight on behalf of Hezbollah than Hamas in Gaza.
The Axis of Resistance has proven to be a formidable alliance. The Houthis have shown that there will be no “business as usual” in the Red Sea, and even top Israelis admit that Hamas will not be defeated.
Hezbollah is an even more powerful force with a standing army of over 100,000 and a deadly arsenal of advanced missiles.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this week that a full-scale war with Hezbollah could mean a “seven-front war.”