TAIWAN STRAIGHT CRISIS 2.0: China Fires Waves of Ballistic Missiles Into Waters Around Island After Pelosi's Photo-Op
House Speaker visited island despite warnings from Beijing
China’s People’s Liberation Army on launched waves of ballistic missiles into the waters surrounding Taiwan on Thursday, shortly after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s photo-op on the island where she got to play president for the day.
The Taiwanese Defense Ministry said the PLA fired 11 ballistic missiles into the waters off northern, southern and eastern Taiwan. Tokyo said five missiles landed in its waters. NBC News said it was the first time China took such actions since 1996, when, once again, the U.S. provoked China when President Bill Clinton ordered American aircraft carriers to the area, The New York Times reported.
Bonny Lin, who worked at the Pentagon and is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, told the paper that she is concerned that the latest exercises could escalate.
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“This is one of the scenarios that is difficult to deal with,’’ she said. “If a military exercise transitions to a blockade, when does it become clear that the exercise is now a blockade? Who should be the first to respond? Taiwan’s forces? The United States? It’s not clear.”
Taiwan equated these exercises to a “maritime and aerial blockade” in violation of Taiwan's “territorial waters and its contiguous zone.”
Peter Williams, a trade flow analyst at VesselsValue, told CNN that there is a growing risk for a “substantial disruption to trade in the region.”
Pelosi said the visit was to send a message that the U.S. stands with Taiwan, but has been roundly criticized in China.
The Global Times, a mouthpiece for the Chinese government, ran an op-ed condemning the visit.
Pelosi declared that the US "stands with Taiwan." She probably wanted to impress the world as an 82-year-old people "offering support" to Taiwan despite the danger, a way to cover up the evil purpose of her visit.
This reminds us of a common phenomenon in the international community in recent years: those some US politicians claim to stand with are going to be in trouble.
The Times reported that many Chinese were disappointed with China’s tolerance of Pelosi’s visit. The were unhappy that there was no military action, “No shoot-down, no missile attack, no fighter jet flying next to Ms. Pelosi’s plane. Just some denunciations and announcements of military exercises.”
Prior to her visit, Hu Xijin, a columnist for the Global Times, posted on a now-deleted tweet, ““If US fighter jets escort Pelosi’s plane into Taiwan, it is [an] invasion. The [People’s Liberation Army] has the right to forcibly dispel Pelosi’s plane and the US fighter jets, including firing warning shots and making tactical movement of obstruction. If ineffective, then shoot them down.”
Nobuo Kishi, Japan’s defense minister, said the missile launch “is a grave issue that concerns our national security and the safety of the people.”
Maj. Gen. Meng Xiangqing, a professor of strategy at the National Defense University in Beijing, told a local broadcaster that it “should be said that although this is an exercise resembling actual combat, it can at any time turn into real combat.”
TREND FORECAST: We forecast that just as Beijing has clamped down on Hong Kong protests and taken full control, so, too, will they take control of Taiwan when they are ready.
Despite condemnations when they do so, there will be no military forces from other nations that will challenge Communist China’s military might. Indeed, America, with the largest military in the world, has not won a war since World War II and cannot even win against third-world nations, such as Afghanistan, after invading that nation some 20 years ago.
The Ukraine invasion showed that the U.S. is willing to offer support by exporting military equipment and level sanctions, but it does not want to fight China in a war that it would lose. SUBSCRIBE TO THE TRENDS JOURNAL FOR THE FULL FORECAST